Retailers in the third quarter noted a broad consumer pullback in discretionary categories. But that didn’t stop them from sharing positive projections for Black Friday, Thanksgiving weekend and subsequent Christmas shopping weekends.

While retailers are generally optimistic about holiday, many are emphasizing value to win over inflation-stricken consumers during an uncertain economic environment — and that means more promotions.

According to a note from BTIG consumer and retail analyst Janine Stichter, retail earnings commentary from last week “suggests consumers continuing to be judicious in their spend, prioritizing value.”

“We believe the upcoming holiday period will be highly promotional, and while we expect a solid Black Friday/Cyber Monday, suspect we could see a lull through much of December,” Stichter said.

Similarly, a recent survey of 1,000 US consumers from Goldman Sachs found that “retailers that offer the right product at a compelling value in channels that are increasingly favored by consumers” are best positioned to win this holiday season.

Newness

In addition to the value proposition, having compelling, new product, will also be important this holiday season.

Target last week noted that more customers, burdened by inflation, appeared to be delaying their seasonal spending until the last minute. However, the retailer said that newness will help its performance in the fourth quarter holiday season.

“Doing more of the same just isn’t going to get it done, which is why we’ve invested in newness,” said Target EVP and chief growth officer Christina Hennington in a call with analysts. “We’re really pleased with assortment we’re putting forward and think this will certainly motivate the guest to buy.”

Macy’s also said that it expects the customer to be “under pressure and discerning in how they spend in discretionary categories” this holiday but said it expects a strong turnout for Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend given the retailer’s strong assortment.

“Our gift guides have got a nice range of products and price points that I think show compelling value as well as the degree of newness that we just didn’t have last year,” said Macy’s CEO-elect Tony Spring in a call with analysts.

What brands will stand out

Caleres expects the Chuck Taylor Lift from Converse to be a big seller at Famous Footwear this holiday season.CALERES

When it comes to categories, a recent Wedbush Securities survey found that 58 percent of people plan to gift apparel and footwear for the holidays this year, compared to 55 percent last year. Respondents said they would likely shop hot brands like Lululemon, Hoka, On, Ugg, Skechers and The North Face.

Wedbush also saw stronger year-over-year interest in brands like Timberland, Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, Under Armour and Steve Madden, which the firm noted as being somewhat surprising. Hey Dude and Crocs also performed well in the survey, with both brands showing growth in shopping intent compared to the prior year.

Caleres, which owns Famous Footwear, Allen Edmonds, Sam Edelman and more brands, said it is prepared to cater to holiday demand this season with compelling products for the whole family.

“The hot items at Famous Footwear for this holiday season include the iconic Birkenstock Boston, the Bearpaw Shorty and the Chuck Taylor Lift from Converse,” said Mike Edwards, president of Famous Footwear. “We also have on-trend selections that are perfect for those holiday parties.”

Shoe Show VP of merchandise John Walker told FN that “styles that are driving sales during this season will include Crocs, HeyDude, New Balance Roaves in both men’s and ladies, and new arrivals of Adidas in men’s.”

“Brooks is leading the way in performance running styles,” he added. “Anything in Skechers featuring Slip-in is working.”