Much has been made about the hyped sneaker’s so-called demise and its impact on resale. For sure, fewer styles are selling out at retail and broader economic concerns are fueling anxiety. However, if you ask industry leaders, they’ll tell you the secondary sneaker market — which reportedly could reach $30 billion by 2030 — isn’t unhealthy. It’s just in a different place.

“In the last nine years, we’ve seen the ebb and flow of resale premium, resale dynamics and supply and demand multiple times. Anytime there’s a high, people get very high. Anytime there’s a low, people are like, ‘Is this the end?’ The reality is sneaker reselling, and the ecosystem, are resilient,” said StockX chief executive officer Greg Schwartz, who founded the company with Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber and Chris Kaufman in 2016.

He continued, “We have a much broader audience, and given the macro environment and where supply and demand characteristics have been, there’s more volume in the market today that trades at varying price points.”

WHAT’S CHANGED?

But it’s true the market has hit some bumps. Executives at Stadium Goods and GOAT Group both confirmed that profit margins for many sellers have shrunk in recent years, though they did not disclose specific changes to price premiums.

StockX, meanwhile, reported that in 2024, 47 percent of sneaker releases traded above retail price, down from 58 percent in 2020.

Why has there been a swing in price premiums? Plenty of reasons. For starters, economic headwinds have influenced buying habits.

“The consumer has been under inflationary pressure these last two years, so it’s no surprise that lower-
price-point sneakers are popular on our platforms,” said Sen Sugano, chief brand officer at GOAT Group, which includes the GOAT and Flight Club banners. “Consumers are trending toward sneakers like Nike Dunks, Adidas Sambas and Gazelles and Nike P-6000s. Those, and similar styles, speak to the consumer desire for something casual and approachable, but that still expresses their style at a price point they can afford.”

Also, industry giants have oversupplied key silhouettes at retail, making profiting on the secondary market more difficult. Specifically, market watchers have criticized Nike Inc. — which has long dominated the secondary market — for rampant oversaturation of key styles.

“Starting in late 2023 and throughout 2024, the imbalance between supply and demand on
the primary market flipped. You saw fewer sellouts, and it was a lot easier to find key releases at retail. That’s going to naturally drive down the premiums that you see on the secondary market,” said Michael Daniel, senior vice president and general manager at Stadium Goods.

Schwartz added, “When there’s an abundance of every product, even higher-heat products, people stop caring. Not only that, it’s also more competitive now. People are looking at Hoka and On, Saucony and New Balance.”

Because of this, resellers that focused on volume and smaller margins are enjoying more success today than those betting on highly coveted styles that offer larger margins.

“It used to be that you could double your money,” Daniel explained. “Now, many resellers are shifting to a volume play. They’re focused more on volume versus doubling your money on a handful of pairs. If you can get $10, $15, $20 of profit per pair on many more sneakers, that’s a more viable business.”

Schwartz said these volume- focused resellers have long fared well on StockX.

“We have different seller tiers, and with our top sellers, it’s a volume play. A few years ago, a top seller could acquire an item at retail, maybe even paying above retail, and still have a healthy margin. Today, the way they acquire product is building relationships with wholesalers, finding opportunity between wholesale and retail, and going after more of that value customer.”

One of those sellers is Vernon Simms, who began reselling in high school and started with StockX when it launched in 2016. He built his business — reportedly worth $10 million — buying in volume, from hundreds to thousands of pairs, and making $20 to $25 in profit per pair.

“The Hypebeast stuff is always going to be there. There’s always going to be someone who wants
the flashy, popular shoe, and I’ll always be there to give them that,” said Simms. “But my consumer base is your everyday person: The dad who wants to go running, the mom going to the gym. They don’t want something that’s hyped that’s going to cost them a whole bunch of money.”

Sugano agreed, noting that economic constraints forced shoppers to be more strategic with their buying. “Consumers are mixing and matching. They may save a little here and spend a little more there. They are being much smarter about how they’re spending, and they’re maximizing their dollar,” he said.

All that being said, plenty of releases still demand high prices at resale. So far this year, several styles — most notably from Nike Inc. brands — have fetched big money across secondary market platforms.

This includes the Air Jordan 1 High Retro High 85 “Bred,” the Air Jordan 12 Retro “Flu Game,” the Union LA x Air Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP “Chicago Shadow” and the Nike Foamposite One “Galaxy” and “Copper” colorways.

Also, Travis Scott’s collaborations with Jordan Brand continue to sell for massive premiums on the secondary market. On StockX, for example, his shoes had an average resale price of $451 in 2024 and average price premium of 197 percent.

“When we launched, everything was that high-heat, crazy premium. If you look today, half of our new releases trade at a price premium,” said Schwartz. But he pointed out that the trend isn’t new — it started as far back as 2020, when price premiums made up about 58 percent of sales. “So it’s not wildly different. It’s not like 2 percent are trading at a price premium now versus 90 percent before,” he said.

THE BRAND MIX

The secondary market has long been dominated by the three-headed monster of Nike, Jordan and Adidas. But today’s consumer wants more.

“In 2021 and 2022, Nike and Jordan were nearly three-fourths of our sales. And Yeezy was an important brand for Stadium Goods during that time. Today, Nike and Jordan make up less than half of what we sell,” Daniel said.

Several new and emerging brands are in increasingly high demand.

For instance, sales of Chinese athletic brand Anta — led by NBA star Kyrie Irving’s signature shoes — grew 1,901 percent and 799 percent on StockX and GOAT Group, respectively, in 2024. And retro styles from Asics increased 645 percent at GOAT Group and 350 percent for StockX in 2024.

Also notable last year, Saucony cracked the top five fastest-growing brands list at StockX for the first time, thanks to its high-profile collabs, while Li-Ning ranked No. 7 with a sales increase of 113 percent, because of retired basketball legend Dwayne Wade’s signature shoes.

Other brands experiencing degrees of success across resale platforms include New Balance, On, Hoka, Onitsuka Tiger and many others.

“If we were having this conversation six or seven years ago, we wouldn’t be mentioning these other names,” Schwartz said. “More brands are leveraging the strategy of working with influential artists, musicians, celebrities or athletes, and it’s working. And when they’re releasing product, it’s not an abundance of supply.”

But don’t count out the big three, said Sugano. “I don’t think Nike, Jordan and Adidas are going to necessarily lose their spots. There’s quite a bit of history and storytelling with their products. But over time, it’s going to become more competitive as these stories get developed, as these [other] brands realize they need to invest in storytelling, they need to invest in product that is more meaningful to the customer.”

A BETTER TOMORROW

Looking ahead, Sugano believes there’s plenty to be excited about when it comes to sneakers.

“With inflationary pressures, people are being smarter with how they spend their dollars. But the engagement is showing that this community is still strong. They’re just waiting for the right products — and the brands recognize this as well,” he said.

The shift in the marketplace might already be underway, said Schwartz.

“This year, after two years of weakness — specifically for Nike and Jordan — we’re seeing the beginning of the next phase, which is looking stronger for sneaker releases,” he said. “When we’ve seen a revert to more premiums and better releases, it follows a period of oversupplying, steep discounting. We saw this when Nike and Jordan Brand lost their way a bit around the time Adidas was taking share with NMDs, Boost, Yeezy. They started pulling back supply, leveraging the scarcity.”

Looking further ahead, Schwartz predicted that brand diversification will continue. He also believes the sneaker marketplace will be even better to women.

“The female category is getting a lot of attention,” he said. “The WNBA is front and center, and we’re seeing the smartest brands lean into it — look at A’ja Wilson, the [Sabrina Ionescu Nike shoe franchise], Caitlin Clark is about to have a signature shoe. And arguably the biggest headline this year has been NikeSkims.”

StockX saw more than 16,000 trades across 43 unique Nike Sabrina sneakers in 2024 (a 707 percent increase in sales from 2023). And at GOAT Group, Ionescu’s Sabrina 1 from 2023 and last year’s Sabrina 2 shoe grew 401 percent in 2024.

Overall, Daniel said he believes the sneaker market is entering a new, better era. “I don’t think we’re going back to the type of premiums we saw in 2020 and 2021 — and that’s good,” he explained. “There’s a healthier balance where products will sell out at retail and the hype model will work, and customers will be able to find products on the secondary market at reasonable premiums.”