Despite a challenging start to the year (and an intense cloud of smoke from Canadian wildfires), the overall mood last week during FFANY market week and Footwear Show New York Expo (FSNYE) was optimistic as companies met to preview the spring ’24 collections.

While there are still some economic concerns like the threat of recession and reduced consumer spending – which many public companies lamented in recent earnings calls – most companies at market week were looking ahead to a promising 2024.

Matt Priest, president and CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), which hosts the seasonal FFANY trade show, summarized the outlook: “The one word I kept hearing last week when I was making the rounds is that business is ‘challenged,’” Priest told FN. “This shouldn’t be a surprise given the latest macroeconomic data, but despite this, most companies were positive last week. This industry is resilient, and we’ve been through a lot since 2020. Most of our companies are looking forward to opportunities in 2024.”

Priest added that what the industry may be feeling is the stabilization of the market given the “sugar high” it experienced in recent years due to the stimulus. According to Priest, the footwear industry brought in $84 billion in 2019, and by 2021, the industry was at $100 billion in sales in just two years. In 2022, footwear sales were at $105 billion, and this year is expected to be down slightly to $104 billion.

For Becky Kueny, VP of sales at RG Barry (parent company of Dearfoams), retailers are overall remaining cautious about business and inventory. “But I think they’re optimistic as they look ahead,” Kueny said. “They’re optimistic on, at least from our world, of the product that we have. So I think they seem very excited about it. Traffic for us [during the show] was actually very good.”

The mixed sentiment was also shared by Lynn Chaffee, account executive at Washington Shoe Company.

“[Companies are] definitely conservative but a lot of people are optimistic that things will turn around in September,” Chaffee noted.

Cassandra Hoyt, senior marketing manager at Birkenstock, is also optimistic, noting in part that the brand’s showroom was so crowded they could barely move around. “We were very busy with customers, and they were very receptive to our new product line,” Hoyt said.

Meanwhile, Jim Kennedy, Toms’ VP of sales, acknowledged the uneven performance in the market but noted that Toms is up double digits this year. “We expect that our comps will be up even if the retailer is playing flat or even down because we sold out of so many items,” Kennedy said. “We expect our business to be up.”

Mike Kerr, VP of J/Slides, also boasted about his brand’s positive results. “The first quarter was actually very good for us,” Kerr said. “It was good that we delivered some early sandals and early sneakers. They all started checking immediately because I think the customer wanted freshness right away in spring ’23.”

Over at the FSNYE show at the Park Lane hotel, president Phyllis Rein noted that she had the “best well attended show” since the start of the pandemic. “Major department stores, independents, chains, boutiques, and eCommerce platforms all pre-registered to attend,” Rein said.

The trade show executive also mentioned that retailers expressed “extreme interest” in visiting new brands. “Merchants are looking to elevate newness in their stores with up-in-coming designers that offer fresh, whimsical, and vibrant colors,” Rein added. “The return of high-heels and luxury shoes was also on their must-see list. But more established brands stepped it up by incorporating exotic and cool materials and pops of color which brought excitement and vigor to the shoes.”

New to the FSNYE show was Peruvian footwear and accessories brand Butrich. The nearly 20-year-old company, which is well-established throughout Latin America, is marking its return to the U.S. market with an offering of statement-making shoes. Andrea Bellina, global business development at Butrich, admitted that business has decreased a little bit this season compared to other trade shows the brand has exhibited at in recent years. “The economic situation has caused buyers’ budgets to tighten,” Bellina said. “This is making some buyers play it safe and buy styles they know work already.”

Jessica Bēdard, founder of luxury shoe brand Maison Bēdard shared Bellina’s take on the industry. The company, which is also new to the FSNYE show and to the U.S. market, admitted that some retailers that stopped by were pushing back on pricing, especially for a brand new to American wholesalers. “Our shoes are produced in the same factory in Italy that produces for Manolo, so we are at a luxury price point,” Bēdard said. “And we’ve definitely seen an increase in production costs. So this is kind of worrisome, because we do want to offer a reasonable retail price, but our costs keep going up.”

Over at Palladium, however, brand director Allison Bennett thinks it’s going to be a good year despite some concerns. “I think some people are concerned and they want to find the right product for the right time,” Bennett said. “But for the most part, everyone has been positive. I think after the pandemic, people are catching up to real business now and seeing business in its full effect.”

Sam Poser, equity analyst at Williams Trading, provided even more insight into the current state of the business. In a note to clients on Monday, Poser said that it’s clear that consumers are more focused than they’ve ever been. “Today, consumers are more particular, but not weak,” Poser said. “The weaker-than-anticipated demand from wholesale accounts, in general, is the result of poor buying decisions in late ’21 and in most of ’22, as most retailers bought for future quarters, as if stimulus payments would continue, and then bought tertiary goods to fill stores, due to supply chain congestion that delayed orders of needed goods.”

Poser added that it is essential for brands to have “innovative new product,” but even more essential for brands to “control distribution and have a relative scarcity model” in order to find success, citing Hoka and Ugg as companies that are executing this strategy well.

Looking ahead to 2024, FFANY’s Matt Priest added that companies could expect a “somewhat normal year” barring any major historical events that may affect the market. “We think 2024 will feel much more like the industry did in 2018 or 2019, where companies are dealing with typical supply chain and demand and few macroeconomic challenges. And if this does actually happen, I think we can chalk that up as a win.”